On November 24th, the Turkish government ordered the destruction of a Russian Su-24 that was violating Turkish airspace.
Since then events have unfolded dictating who gave the orders, as well the speed of which that these orders were carried out. It is not for me to say what is right and what is wrong in international diplomacy. But recently revealed facts point to a rhetorical face-off between two sides, not on the idea of airspace, but on the Syrian conflict.
Even taking Ankara’s account at face value, the Su-24 was in their airspace for just 17 seconds before being attacked, and was making no hostile moves against the Turks. Incursions, even if usually in less politically-tense contexts, happen all the time, and generally you’d expect warning shots fired and then attempts to force the intruder to leave national airspace or to land.
That the Turks fired and did so with such speed – and Turkish PM Erdogan says he gave the orders to fire himself, which in 17 seconds is pretty quick on the draw. To me, this strongly suggests they were waiting for a Russian plane to come into or close enough to Turkish airspace with the aim of delivering a pyrotechnic message.
In this respect, unusually enough, I find myself agreeing with Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov when he called it a “provocation” and an “ambush.” Let’s be clear, Moscow was foolish to let its planes stray so close to the border, doubly foolish if its rules of engagement allowed pilots to dip into Turkish airspace when it was operationally useful (and I suspect the latter was true).
However, Turkey’s response went way beyond the usual practice. Don’t believe me? In 2012, the Syrians shot down a Turkish jet which had entered its airspace, and Erdogan’s furious response at the time was that “a short-term border violation can never be a pretext for an attack.”
It is unfortunate, but the life of a pilot was lost so that Turkey could draw a line in the rhetorical sand to Russia about where she stands on the Syrian Civil War. At least this is what this “short-term border violation” turn murder must be because Turkey has a lot more to lose in the conflict against ISIS, at least in the short term, as compared to Russia.
Shooting down the Su-24 was just one way, I believe, that Turkey is going to rattle her saber to get the attention of not only Russia but also Turkey’s western “allies.” Whether I am right or wrong will be seen over the course of the Syrian Civil war.